We live in an ever more complex, chaotic world where the pace of change seems to be accelerating daily. How to make sense of it all? How to weave coherent cloth out of these diverse, often conflicting threads? Where our existing models no longer seem adequate to guide us forward?
We must distinguish between signal and noise, between cyclical movements and structural sea changes; between what will eventually flow underneath the bridge and what must be faced and dealt with. Ultimately, sensemaking is about updating our maps of the world. It is balancing, iterating our way into a deeper, fuller understanding of an evolving reality, using our critical thinking skills adroitly, weighing the integrity and accuracy of various sources of information and adjusting, performing a mental version of Kentucky Windage to correct our bias. Effective sensemaking requires a high degree of both self-awareness and social/cultural/other awareness, leaning more on wisdom than raw intellect.
To be useful, to have its most powerful effect on our lives, our efforts at sensemaking must be ongoing, a lifelong practice. The good news is that while practice may not make for perfect, it will make for progress, your judgement sharper, your pattern recognition stronger and increase your composure in times of turbulence.
Closing Quotes:
“All models are wrong, but some are useful.” – George Box, 1919-2013
“In God we trust. All others must bring data.” – W. Edwards Deming, 1900-1993
“The biggest mistakes come from having a paradigm and not questioning it.” – Ray Dalio, Principles
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.” – Daniel J. Boorstin, 1914-2004, (Ego and overconfidence blocks learning/recalibration)
“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself—and you are the easiest person to fool.” – Richard Phillips Feynman, 1918 – 1988, 1965 Nobel Prize, (Noise survives because it serves us)
“The combination of some data and an aching desire for an answer does not ensure that a reasonable answer can be extracted.” – John Tukey, 1915-2000 (Weak signal + strong desire = illusion)
“The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a reliable guide to their validity.” – Daniel Kahneman, 1934-2024, Thinking, Fast and Slow, 2002 Nobel Prize, (People are fooled by noise, mistaking confidence for competence)
As always, I share what I most want and need to learn. – Nathan S. Collier
Note: Every effort has been made to properly source any 3rd person material. I am, however, a voracious reader. If anyone finds any unattributed material, pls let me know asap and I will be delighted to give credit where credit is due.
“All intelligent thoughts have already been thought; what is necessary is only to try to think them again.” – Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, 1749-1832
